Avian+Flu+Future+Prognosis

Is the pandemic risk serious?

Yes. Influenza viruses can reach all countries. Once the pandemic spreads internationally, it is considered unstoppable. The virus will be able to spread by coughing or sneezing. Each time the H5N1 virus infects a human, it is more likely to become transmissible from human to human, thereby turning it into a pandemic virus.

How likely is a pandemic?

3 conditions that must be met:

1. A new influenza virus develops. 2. The virus causes illness in humans. 3. The virus can spread from human to human.

The H5N1 virus meets requirement 1) and 2), but not 3). No one will have immunity to a virus like it. However, effective passing of the virus from human to human has not yet been established. There have been no instances of the virus spreading beyond people who came into very close contact with an infected person. We don’t know if this was human-to-human or if they came into contact with the same poultry source.

How can H5N1 become a pandemic virus? How can we prevent a pandemic? 
 * 1) Human and avian viruses exchanging genetic material. This will alow the virus to pass from human to human.
 * 2) Gradual mutations where the virus can better attach to human cells.

When many people are diagnosed with avian flu in the same time and place, it could be indication that a transmissible pandemic virus is developing. No one knows for sure whether a pandemic can be prevented. The only guaranteed way is to make sure no more birds carry the virus. WHO has medications that will be able to treat 3 million cases. They hope that these will prevent a full-fledged pandemic virus from developing if they notice an increase in human-to-human transmission. This would require close monitoring of infected areas.

Are we prepared for a pandemic? 

No. Manufacturers cannot meet the demand for medications during a pandemic. Also, most developing countries will not have vaccines or drugs in stock. http://www.news.ucdavis.edu/special_reports/avian_flu/images/avian_flu_map.gif

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